Assad: New breed of dictatorship or Crafty Strategist

 

The Syrian uprising, now in its third year, showed us that Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad is both a ruthless man and a very smart dictator to survive thick and thin throughout the crisis.

Assad is good at reading and predicting behaviors of his adversaries, adjusting his moves accordingly and walking a fine line not to cross “red lines,” whaetver they are. These smart moves have allowed him to continue his military campaign to root out opposition fighters and have made possible foreign intervention to end the 26-month crisis a distant possibility.
On the military front, Assad is rushing to capture as many lands as possible to have an upper hand in next month's peace conference. In diplomacy, he is labeling the opposition "fragmented" and "radical" to reduce support it gets from the West.
It is no more secret that forces loyal to the Syrian regime are winning the war that has already left nearly 100,000 dead. When the Assad forces outflanked the opposition siege near Idlib on April 14, it marked the turning point for the Syrian army. The successful military campaign has continued throughout the rest of April and early May, ringing alarm bells in the Western capitals.
In the early days of the army's military gains, Washington floated the idea of possible use of chemical weapons -- America's red line -- in the country to bolster the case for intervention. If Washington has no intention to intervene, why would it then mention the use of chemical weapons in Syria only to face pressure to act and risk seeming hypocritical? Assad is also smart enough not to deploy and use chemical weapons as long as he understands that it means an open invitation for intervention.
The chemical-weapons-use debate is an illustration of the prevailing sense of frustration among US officials that the Syrian regime is winning the war militarily and that Washington and allies should act immediately to reverse the troubling course. Assad knows that his victorious advancement will lead to the West arming rebels and possible intervention. To avoid this, the Syrian regime offered talks to the US through Moscow a week after the Washington accused Damascus of using chemical weapons.
The Syrian regime waited for nearly a week before it offered negotiations in a bid to strengthen its hand in talks by securing Damascus suburbs and taking back Homs. He confirmed this strategy in an interview with Argentinian newspaper.
With the generous help from Hezbollah and Iran, the Syrian army has made considerable progress in taking cities back one by one. To help Damascus, Russia delayed the peace conference expected to take place in Geneva in early June. By the time sides convene to discuss the political transition in Syria, Assad will have even a stronger hand. Because, in his words, “the battlefield will decide who is strong when they enter negotiations.”
With only several weeks left to the peace conference, Assad already seems to be downplaying the conference. He is right in thinking that the era of Syrian diplomacy is over. Two major factors are an indication that the conference in Geneva will fail.
One is the army's significant military gains and Russia's moves in eastern Mediterranean to complicate a possible intervention. Being stronger at the negotiating table in Geneva, Assad will resist stepping down and making considerable concessions. It is little wonder that the opposition and its Western backers will withdraw from the talks in these circumstances.
The second factor that will make the Geneva conference unsuccessful is the composition of the fighting unit on the ground. Many radical groups in Syria fighting to oust the Assad regime are not under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, the main military command tied to the Syrian Opposition Coalition. Assad understands that any deal he clinches with the opposition will not be enforced because many fighting units don't recognize the legitimate Syrian opposition.
“There cannot be a unilateral solution in Syria; two parties are needed at least,” Assad said in the interview, referring to the fragmented nature of the opposition forces